Why Windows 7 Will Flop - It's The Economy

Discussion in 'Windows 7 Help and Support' started by MichaelSFO, Feb 22, 2009.

  1. MichaelSFO

    MichaelSFO New Member

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    Hey, far be it for me to piddle on anyone's parade and having worked on computers since the KayPro days, I am a fan of anything new. I like MS as a company, albeit their money making schemes sometimes tick me off.

    Anyway, I like XP, that has been around since 2001 and now that we have Service Pack 3.

    I don't like Vista and even if Win 7 arrives in 2010 I won't be looking at it until 2011-2012 (to wait for the eventual SP1 and also for all the bugs to get worked out).

    That said, Win 7 will flop for one reason... the current recession (and eventual depression?). Just thought I would add that into the discussion, since there won't be a huge flood of sales of the OS (which is the most common indicator of any product's success).

    Here is a comment I posted on CNET Forums. I mention other factors why Vista was a flop and why Windows 7 will follow the same path.

    I realize this is not a tech comment, but if and when Win 7 sales are not where they should be, it may NOT be because the OS is a poor product. To be sure, many MS operating systems have been great (Win 3.1, that started it all; Win 98, XP with service packs).

    No, Win 7 may fail because with the economic downturn 90% of America are holding fast with their old machines. Few will be able to afford to upgrade an outdated "XP-based" PC, nor do many have on their shopping lists to buy a new Win 7 computer (to which they will then have to deal with updating old, unsupported software and peripherals). Don't believe me?

    Well consider how many people are cutting back on basics and small expenditure, such as cable TV services, not going out to dinner, the movies and people who buying space heaters to warm ONLY the room they are sitting in. These people are not looking to spend $500 to $1000 for a new computer with the latest OS.

    My CNET post below the fold:

    =================================================

    IMHO 90% of Americans use old machines until they die out or they are are forced to get a new computer (failure, machine is clogged with viruses, adware, hard disk full or corrupted).

    With the recession (and upcoming depression?) people will be holding on to their computers even longer than the four year average, maybe six to seven years. People will be making do with desktops and notebooks running XP.

    The downturn also caused Vista to suffer.

    Anyway, all of Vista's criticisms can be pointed to one thing, people trying to use Vista on an old PC, or a new PC user trying to get a new PC to work with old software and peripherals (a drivers issue).

    90% of computer users don't understand the concept of "drivers" or software updates, much less minimum system requirements to make the computer, as they would say, "go fast."

    End result: Vista flopped.

    I wrote a magazine article answering the question "Should Your Office Upgrade To Vista?" I said "hell no."
    The main reasons were that those 90% of users can't spend the 100 or so hours required to update an old machine, peripherals and software to work with Vista, the cost would far exceed the cost of the Vista OS and that they better be prepared to lose the use of older equipment and software for which there are no Vista updates (the developer or manufacturers not providing any).

    I say all this based on the 50 or so friends, colleagues, and relatives who have enlisted (and begged) for help on fixing their old computers (that run XP).

    How "computer basic" are these people? One was an engineer on the job for 35 years. He called in a state of panic because his computer would not boot and he had been trying to fix the problem for three hours. Actually, his wife called because he was too proud to call me. Problem fix: The message on his screen indicated he had a 3.5" floppy in the drive. LOL. Floppy ejected, PC reboots. Time he spent on phone with me before telling him the fix: 90 seconds, tops. Time lecturing him on what happened: 30 minutes.
     
  2. Radenight

    Radenight New Member

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    I'm so sick and fuc*ing tired of hearing people bitch about the economy.. give it a rest.. what the hell did you think was going to happen!!? The fact that all these "economists" and "professional analysts" were so nieve to think the economy wasn't going to crash is their own problem... I don't give a flyin fu*k if Windows 7 sales aren't where they should be, that or the current "economic situation" are certainly not going to stop me (and I know I'm not alone) from going out and buying a retail copy of the OS when in final form.. ;) It's funny to me that people are all complaining and trying to cut back on their spending all of a sudden just because the economy is sh!tty right now.. these are the same people that are making good money in the first place but yet their too fu*kin stupid to make a budget and stick to it for example.. if they had then they really wouldn't have to worry so much about the stupid economy now would they... ;) I donno maybe it's just me, but it's annoying as hell to keep hearing this bullsh!t about the economy.. The powers that be knew it was going to happen and what did they do? They just stood back and watched it happen and did all they could to make it happen faster in my opinion!... It's like anything else.. what goes up MUST come down at some point in time..

    This might just be in my neck of the woods but as far as people not spending so much on things like TV's and PC's just for example.. I really don't know where your getting that information because I see tons of people still spending tons of money on things like TV's and PC's and gaming consoles for example.. Not to mention the stores are also making certain things more affordable by lowering prices considerably.. But the point is people still seem to be spending just as much money as they were before if not more in some cases... And I'm sorry but the days of having to spend $1000 to have a "good" PC are long gone.. even here in Canada you can pick up a decent PC WITH a monitor for $500-$700 (less if you build it yourself).. I'm still seeing tons of new PC's fly off store shelves too...

    As far as Windows 7 flopping.. I strongly disagree with you there.. Have you used the Beta yet? This is one OS that I really don't think people will need to wait around for SP1 before buying it.. there are very few bugs in the Beta and I really can't see it taking a turn for the worst between now and the RC.... I have Windows 7 Beta installed on 4 different PC's all with hardware from very different eras.. and not one of them gave me any critical errors or any major problems.. each installed perfectly and drivers were not a problem for any of them either.. Windows 7 is ready now as far as I'm concerned (again I know I'm not the only one that thinks this), anything MS does to it from now until the RTM is simply polishing it up and working out all the kinks.. which as I've already said there really aren't that many kinks to work out.. certainly nothing major.. some may say the UAC flaw is major, and yes it is a high priority, but it's being fixed and will be fixed by the RC.. other than that, this is honestly one of the most stable OS's I've ever seen from MS and it's only in BETA stages.. :) As far as that goes, even the ALPHA builds (6801.. etc) where incredibly stable.. I also installed build 6801 on my 4 pc's and also had very little for problems.. So needless to say I do not agree with you on Windows 7 flopping at all...

    As far as Vista flopping goes.. that was mostly because developers didn't listen to MS's strict guidelines when writing drivers for one thing.. which lead to poor drivers or lack of drivers.. not to mention the rediculious hardware requirements (at the time of release this was more of a big deal then now) it took to run Vista well... In my opinion Windows Vista was a poor OS at release but it has managed to redeem itself and is now a stable, good working OS... I also have it running on 2 of my 4 home PC's and I will continue to use it alongside of Windows 7 and XP well after Windows 7 is released in final form..

    To end this rant I'll simply say that I do not think Windows 7 will flop at all, I think sales MIGHT be slower than MS is expecting at first.. and NOT just because of the stupid economy.. but also because some people think 7 is just Vista with a few modifications.. (which I DO NOT think in any way) Those people will most likely hold out on buying 7 at first but will eventually cave and buy it or obtain it by buying a new PC.. All in all I think Windows 7 will do just fine.. :)
     
  3. MichaelSFO

    MichaelSFO New Member

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    Wow... swearing and all. You need to take Valium or go rant on somewhere besides a Windows 7 forum. ;)

    Besides, check MS stock price, income levels, and speeches that MS has made to explain Vista's dismal numbers.

    And I don't know where you get YOUR numbers from, but watch only the news and you won't see any evidence of "tons of people still spending tons of money on things like TV's and PC's and gaming consoles for example."

    Or haven't you heard about the reasons behind the $2 trillion in bailouts and the stimulus package. That's ain't because "tons of people [are] still spending tons of money on things like TV's and PC's and gaming consoles for example." What universe you living in?

    Maybe you should head over to Washington and tell them there is no problem, because you have seen "tons of people still spending tons of money..." Hurry up before my taxes fund the checks about to go out.:):rolleyes:

    I suspect you are one of the "haves" who does not care to hear about the existing and upcoming "have nots," you are one of the "let them eat cake crowd."

    Let them eat cake - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    On your statement that people are supposedly buying "tons of stuff":

    From Booz in Oct. 2008, before things have gotten even worse:

    U.S. consumers have cut back spending significantly over the past six months, according to a new survey on consumer spending from Booz & Company. More than one third of consumers have made substantial cutbacks in frequent purchases, such as dining out, driving and shopping for everyday goods. In addition consumers plan to continue tightening their household budgets even further if the economy worsens, cutting back on a range of products and services and durable goods, from electronics purchases to gym memberships to children’s toys.

    http://www.booz.com/media/uploads/Consumer-Spending-in-the-Economic-Downturn.pdf

    Microsoft, Nokia and Sony Hurt by the Decline in Consumption | Bizcovering

    As to the economy and MS sales:

    THE ECONOMY: ; Microsoft Resorts to First Layoffs, Cutting 5,000 Jobs

    Microsoft Admits Poor Economy Will Hurt Revenues | Edge Online
     
  4. Radenight

    Radenight New Member

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    First of all I live in Canada.. So I won't be making any trips to Washington any time soon... hahahaha and secondly I don't care about the government bailing out auto companies and things that don't help the little people AT ALL... ;) Who the hell cares if they can't make brand new cars for a year or two for example... really.. why don't they start making it easier for regular average joe's to afford these brand new cars.. maybe then people will care more about the government bailing them out.. The government is and always will be full of nothing but bullsh!t in my opinion...

    On a side note - I'll rant wherever I want to.. :)

    And yeah, ok I'm going to believe everything the media tells me.. because their always right and never lie to the public right?... suuuure... I'll get right on that.. ;) I live in the universe where I see the world, the government and the media for what they really are to put it bluntly..

    Anyways, this isn't even worth arguing about. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions.. and that's all I was doing, voicing mine.. If you want to believe everything the media tells you that's fine, more power to ya.. ;) I wasn't trying to offend you in any way...

    Cheers!
     
  5. Kyle

    Kyle New Member

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    I don't know where you get your numbers from, but I used to work at Future Shop (A Best Buy owned big box in Canada) and was just in this morning. Sales on TVs, consoles, games, movies, laptops and home theatre equipment are up to levels unseen in the last two months of the fiscal year since the early 90's. My local Future Shop (In a city of 90,000) hit over $100,000 today as a C-class store, with $50,000 is that in Home Theatre and Entertainment. Those are numbers they would usually be hitting in 'Back to School' or 'Holiday' seasons, not February 22nd. The economy may be on a down stream, but it's most hard hit in other sectors. At least in Canada, people are seeing the lack of cash flow, overtime, and etc as a chance to invest in their home, since they won't be going anywhere on vacation or long distance trips. Money that would be spent on new cars, plane tickets, and events out side of the home is being channeled into TV's and laptops so that 'Mommy, Daddy and the Kids' will have something to do, for now and if the recession gets worse.

    As for Windows 7 flopping due to bad sales, I doubt that. Due to the fact that people will still be doing what they're doing now and buying for the home with the limited amount of cash flow they have, I see Windows 7 performing as well as Vista at the very least.
     
  6. djwayne

    djwayne New Member

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    I dunno, it's a mixed bag around here in the Cleveland area. Some people are doing well, some aren't. Jobs are hard to find, and money is tight for a lot of people. Lot's of layoff's. Lots of people shopping at the thrift stores instead of the mall. Demand is up at the food banks. 6 week wait to apply for government assistance, because they are so busy. Many houses sitting empty and boarded up. Medical insurance and bills are sky high. People moving in with each other for strictly financial reasons. People living on their credit cards, how long is that going to last ??

    If Windows 7 were available today, depending on price, I'd probably buy it, cause I really like it. Six to nine months from now ?? Who knows.....The reality is, stock prices are way down, many companies that have done well in the past are doing terrible right now, some stock prices are down 50-90% over the last year. So things are far from being rosy. We'll see.

    :confused:
     
  7. raw shooter

    raw shooter New Member

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    The Original Poster sounds like the Unabomber on too much coffee.
    Reads like a manifesto.

    Windows 7 will be an OS upgrade. No one will need to sell their house to improve their computing experience.
     
  8. djwayne

    djwayne New Member

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    Windows 7 is a luxury, not a necessity. If you have to decide to either buy an upgrade or groceries, you'll probably go with groceries. Many people are living in survival mode, and don't have discretionary spending money like they used to.

    So yes I think the state of the economy will play a part in Windows 7's sales numbers.


    :)
     
  9. jsilophi

    jsilophi New Member

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    it is interesting enough to read something about this... but what's the point? yes the economy is bad as it is right now (i don't feel it actually). but that won't stop anyone who wants to get their hands on this new operating system.

    thanks for sharing though, it's a good read - learned a few things from it too.
     
  10. kevin from Chi-town

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    windows 7, will not only survive...it will thrive

    So we're in the worst economy in what...A Generation! Big deal...none of you kids remember how bad it got in the 70s, and then again in the 80s, and yet again in the early 90s. For those of that remember, we'll tell you that the economy's bad when people cut the cable and hang up the cell phone. Until that happens, we're just in a slow down.
    This current spoiled generation has no clue what its like to go through a recession that lasts a period of years. This impatient leap to fix things will make matters worse and in a roundabout way, teach this current generation what its like to live in a recession for years.
    As far as 7 goes, its the licensing to businesses that will bring MS through this stretch. They'll be able to ride any downturn, and with the proper OS in place, they'll leap once the upturn happens.
     
  11. davehc

    davehc Microsoft MVP
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    The OP has drawn some conclusions, regarding sales, from some sources which, as he reads it, are essentially correct.
    However, I would agree with the majority view here. I live in an economically sound European country, but am english, and well in touch with my country. If you read any news concerning countries outside the Americas, you will see, even last week, that the large groups have had one of their biggest turnovers for some months, particularly in Electronic goods.
    However poor people may seem, there is often a little pool in the bank, to take advantage of specials.
    Here, for example, keeping on track with computer discussion, it is possible to buy a top market computer, at almost half the price it was available a year ago. Similarly hardware. I guess this was due to the enormous profit the stores were then making. They can afford to reduce that profit, temporarily, to accomodate the repercussions from the depression.
    I have several computers. I am trying, in the interests of moving forward into the 64bit (and other hardware issues) to sell off a couple. I have slowly reduced the prices in the media, and have now got to a bottom level, where the sales hassle is not even worth the effort. I will be giving the computers, both Vista 64bit capable, to my grandchildren as gifts.

    "I don't like Vista and even if Win 7 arrives in 2010 I won't be looking at it until 2011-2012 (to wait for the eventual SP1 and also for all the bugs to get worked out)."
    That is too bad. As you say "I have worked on computers..etc" I think you will find you customers will begin to go elsewhere, if you are that far back in Technology.
    Possibly the essence of your posts. With that attitude, you are not in the same league as the "nerds" (I am one!) who visit forums such as this.
    In fact, on reflection, I wonder why you would have taken the trouble to register and post.

    ""check MS stock price"
    That is the magic phrase and the current reason for the financial crisis. It is a matter of how much profit shareholders can make, and how those shares can be artificially manipulated in the exchanges. If all the stock markets in the world, were suspended for 6 months, the crisis would be over (A personal opinion) When a company as large as Microsoft mutter about poor financial returns, that is all it means.

    "The downturn also caused Vista to suffer." " because the OS is a poor product. "

    That is another broad assumption. Vista is a fine OS. One thing that has not surfaced,which I feel was very much responsible for its demise, was the Web. When XP was in Beta, and final release, Forums were in there infancy. Thus there was very little global feedback. At the time Vista began to emerge, Forums were mushrooming. The early releases, of Vista, were downloaded massively from pirate sites. Those early releases, not meant for the public, were full of bugs. The word spread, from home "experts" and pirating users, most of whom used hackneyed and constantly repeated adverse comments from other sources. Vista was condemned as a disaster, months before its final release. I spend a great deal of time on help forums, and am so tired of reading one-liners "Vista was useless" etc. In most cases, whenever these posters are challenged, their answers are less than knowledgeable.
    Radenight's point about the lack of drivers was also relevant in this process.
    On the other hand, to paint a fair picture, I earnestly believe that the reason that 7 has been received with such enthusiasm, is because of its (unimportant) install and bootup time, in its raw state. This must, of course, impress the average user. It is only in Beta, but I feel less confident than most, that the final product will not be so innovative as we may think.
    My own amateur investigation of the files in, for example, system32, are inclined to lead me to the conclusion that 7 is a well tuned Vista. But I support the Business view. If it was neccessary to rebadge the product, to dispense with the really bad image, and sell some more products, so be it.

    On a lighter note
    "One was an engineer on the job for 35 years. He called in a state of panic because his computer would not boot and he had been trying to fix the problem for three hours. Actually, his wife called because he was too proud to call me. Problem fix: The message on his screen indicated he had a 3.5" floppy in the drive. LOL. Floppy ejected, PC reboots."
    With an engineer like that, who needs professional help?

    Djwayne:
    "Windows 7 is a luxury, not a necessity"
    So is a computer, really?

    Fwiw. It seems to be a common assumption, on computer orientated forums, that all members are teenagers or even further back. I think it is a very wrong assumption.
     
  12. kevin from Chi-town

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    you raise some valid points but on stocks I disagree. Now, and in the past 6 months, there has been complete ineptness on full display on the part of politicians, government regulators, and "financial experts". Global idiots that should get a beating. A few times in history have so few created a mess for so many. But regarding the "financial experts", these clowns are chasing the wave because they have to pick and choose which stock will survive the day. At the end of the day, this stock will be sold. Doesnt matter the name of the company, as long as theres a profit at the end of the day, they will have a job the next day!
    This is day trading, short trading, or emotional trading, whatever you want to call it, it's how the games being played now.This is also trading by herd, or lemming if they lose. The stock price in todays environment means little unless its to the point where you get a run on the stock forcing bankruptcy.
     
  13. davehc

    davehc Microsoft MVP
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    No disagreement, Kevin. That is pretty much what I said, or meant!
     
  14. jimbo45

    jimbo45 New Member

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    Hi guys

    I'm also sick and tired of hearing about the economy --and in any case before Windows ships it will be at least 6 - 9 months -- a lot can happen.


    What all the Bankers etc are missing is OK they say the GDP of most countries will be approx 5 - 6% lower than last year --but what they forget is that this is STILL BIGGER THAN SAY 4 YEARS AGO.

    Now of course there are people losing their jobs -- but lets' see whats actually happening (apart from the DISGUSTING amount of money being thrown at the banks).

    1) Loads of people were suckered into buying property they had NO chance of ever paying back.

    2) Things like Cars are so reliable these days (at least Japanese / Korean and European models) so who needs a new car every year. Plants were geared up to produce zillions every year without actually realizing the market in any case was diminishing without "the recession".

    3) People generally got into too much debt -- its about time we looked at new technology such as decent agriculture, Biofuels, Solar energy etc etc -- this is where growth will come from. If I were "Dictator of the Planet" I'd make an immediate planet wide MAX limit on ANY NEW Credit card of 2,000 USD and all credit had to be paid within 60 days (i.e you were never allowed more than a rolling 60 day credit). I'd also only allow 1 CARD per user. Those Bozos who open their wallets with a concertina string of credit cards IMO are just PLAIN IDIOTS. I'd also stop any use of existing cards until the users had got the outstanding balance down to 2,000 USD and then cut off each card until they only had 1 left.

    4) People tend to shop differently now so some old long established store chains will inevitably close -- this was beginning to happen before the current "crunch" and the sahke out will continue even whne the economy recovers.


    In any "War" and we are technically in an "Economic War" there is always "Collateral Damage" . This means that some people will through no fault of their own lose their jobs etc and this is what governments should be helping -- not giving trillions of dollars to wealthy bankers who still collect their half million pensions.

    I'll bet in any case by October we'll be reading our posts of Jan / Feb and wondering what all the fuss was about.

    Finally to get back to Windows 7 (This is a W7 Forum isn't it) -- judging by the amount of interest shown in the product and the frenzied activity on the torrents (still) I don't think MS has anything to worry about provided it prices the product correctly.

    Cheers
    Jimbo
     
  15. djwayne

    djwayne New Member

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    Well, to give you an example of how screwed up the economy is.... The city of Fort Lauderdale was taking names today to get on a waiting list for Section 8 Housing Assistance.....5,000 people showed up just to get on the waiting list.
    The Dow Jones is down 19% just this year alone. Almost 50% off it's October 2007 high.

    On the news, it may seem surreal, but it's really happening, wealth is disappearing at an alaming rate, and it's not just the U.S., it's happening to many countries including China, Iceland, Ireland, just to mention a few.

    To not acknowledge this, would be like burying your head in the sand.
     
  16. davehc

    davehc Microsoft MVP
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    I will have to be a coward and duck out of this thread. Without offence, I don't visit the forum to discuss world finance.
     
  17. Theo

    Theo New Member

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    W7 success or other

    If W7 os is not trusted by consumers after the Vista downfall there will be no money made for Microsoft. I will be surprised if Windows 7 is sold any higher than 200.00.
     
  18. djwayne

    djwayne New Member

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    Just for the record, even though I think the economy is lousy, I don't think that Windows 7 will flop. It looks like Vista, runs like XP, that's a recipe for success.
    Another reason I don't think it'll flop, because people are watching their spending and computers and the internet are a good bang for the buck, source of entertainment and information. So even though computers may cost something, it's cheaper and better than blowing money on cable bills or going out to see a movie. So it makes sense to keep your computer up to date.

    :)
     
  19. Silver

    Silver New Member

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    meh its not going to be bad, where ever there is a new system win7 will be on it just like all the other gens
    it will just takes its place as time marches on
     
  20. Bryce

    Bryce New Member

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    I'm a geek and if I have so little money, and I do, and was given the choice of buying anything related to computers or food, I'd pick computers. Who cares about food, I've got a few days w/o eating...

    Ontopic:

    Who the hell buys a pre-built computer anyways? You get a much better deal if you build it yourself and guess what, IT'S NOT HARD TO DO. Just read the manual if you want to and you'll get it built. For me, this is my 4th PC I've built in less than 5 months (servers and such). It's actually cheaper in the long run to have Hi-Speed internet and a good computer as you save money from not going out to movies,etc. For example, I'm perfectly fine not eating out, going to movies, mostly because I sit at home all the time and have no friends aside from internet people and I also work at home 30 hours a day almost so meh.
     

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