MichaelSFO
New Member
- Joined
- Feb 18, 2009
- Messages
- 6
- Thread Author
- #1
Hey, far be it for me to piddle on anyone's parade and having worked on computers since the KayPro days, I am a fan of anything new. I like MS as a company, albeit their money making schemes sometimes tick me off.
Anyway, I like XP, that has been around since 2001 and now that we have Service Pack 3.
I don't like Vista and even if Win 7 arrives in 2010 I won't be looking at it until 2011-2012 (to wait for the eventual SP1 and also for all the bugs to get worked out).
That said, Win 7 will flop for one reason... the current recession (and eventual depression?). Just thought I would add that into the discussion, since there won't be a huge flood of sales of the OS (which is the most common indicator of any product's success).
Here is a comment I posted on CNET Forums. I mention other factors why Vista was a flop and why Windows 7 will follow the same path.
I realize this is not a tech comment, but if and when Win 7 sales are not where they should be, it may NOT be because the OS is a poor product. To be sure, many MS operating systems have been great (Win 3.1, that started it all; Win 98, XP with service packs).
No, Win 7 may fail because with the economic downturn 90% of America are holding fast with their old machines. Few will be able to afford to upgrade an outdated "XP-based" PC, nor do many have on their shopping lists to buy a new Win 7 computer (to which they will then have to deal with updating old, unsupported software and peripherals). Don't believe me?
Well consider how many people are cutting back on basics and small expenditure, such as cable TV services, not going out to dinner, the movies and people who buying space heaters to warm ONLY the room they are sitting in. These people are not looking to spend $500 to $1000 for a new computer with the latest OS.
My CNET post below the fold:
=================================================
IMHO 90% of Americans use old machines until they die out or they are are forced to get a new computer (failure, machine is clogged with viruses, adware, hard disk full or corrupted).
With the recession (and upcoming depression?) people will be holding on to their computers even longer than the four year average, maybe six to seven years. People will be making do with desktops and notebooks running XP.
The downturn also caused Vista to suffer.
Anyway, all of Vista's criticisms can be pointed to one thing, people trying to use Vista on an old PC, or a new PC user trying to get a new PC to work with old software and peripherals (a drivers issue).
90% of computer users don't understand the concept of "drivers" or software updates, much less minimum system requirements to make the computer, as they would say, "go fast."
End result: Vista flopped.
I wrote a magazine article answering the question "Should Your Office Upgrade To Vista?" I said "hell no."
The main reasons were that those 90% of users can't spend the 100 or so hours required to update an old machine, peripherals and software to work with Vista, the cost would far exceed the cost of the Vista OS and that they better be prepared to lose the use of older equipment and software for which there are no Vista updates (the developer or manufacturers not providing any).
I say all this based on the 50 or so friends, colleagues, and relatives who have enlisted (and begged) for help on fixing their old computers (that run XP).
How "computer basic" are these people? One was an engineer on the job for 35 years. He called in a state of panic because his computer would not boot and he had been trying to fix the problem for three hours. Actually, his wife called because he was too proud to call me. Problem fix: The message on his screen indicated he had a 3.5" floppy in the drive. LOL. Floppy ejected, PC reboots. Time he spent on phone with me before telling him the fix: 90 seconds, tops. Time lecturing him on what happened: 30 minutes.
Anyway, I like XP, that has been around since 2001 and now that we have Service Pack 3.
I don't like Vista and even if Win 7 arrives in 2010 I won't be looking at it until 2011-2012 (to wait for the eventual SP1 and also for all the bugs to get worked out).
That said, Win 7 will flop for one reason... the current recession (and eventual depression?). Just thought I would add that into the discussion, since there won't be a huge flood of sales of the OS (which is the most common indicator of any product's success).
Here is a comment I posted on CNET Forums. I mention other factors why Vista was a flop and why Windows 7 will follow the same path.
I realize this is not a tech comment, but if and when Win 7 sales are not where they should be, it may NOT be because the OS is a poor product. To be sure, many MS operating systems have been great (Win 3.1, that started it all; Win 98, XP with service packs).
No, Win 7 may fail because with the economic downturn 90% of America are holding fast with their old machines. Few will be able to afford to upgrade an outdated "XP-based" PC, nor do many have on their shopping lists to buy a new Win 7 computer (to which they will then have to deal with updating old, unsupported software and peripherals). Don't believe me?
Well consider how many people are cutting back on basics and small expenditure, such as cable TV services, not going out to dinner, the movies and people who buying space heaters to warm ONLY the room they are sitting in. These people are not looking to spend $500 to $1000 for a new computer with the latest OS.
My CNET post below the fold:
=================================================
IMHO 90% of Americans use old machines until they die out or they are are forced to get a new computer (failure, machine is clogged with viruses, adware, hard disk full or corrupted).
With the recession (and upcoming depression?) people will be holding on to their computers even longer than the four year average, maybe six to seven years. People will be making do with desktops and notebooks running XP.
The downturn also caused Vista to suffer.
Anyway, all of Vista's criticisms can be pointed to one thing, people trying to use Vista on an old PC, or a new PC user trying to get a new PC to work with old software and peripherals (a drivers issue).
90% of computer users don't understand the concept of "drivers" or software updates, much less minimum system requirements to make the computer, as they would say, "go fast."
End result: Vista flopped.
I wrote a magazine article answering the question "Should Your Office Upgrade To Vista?" I said "hell no."
The main reasons were that those 90% of users can't spend the 100 or so hours required to update an old machine, peripherals and software to work with Vista, the cost would far exceed the cost of the Vista OS and that they better be prepared to lose the use of older equipment and software for which there are no Vista updates (the developer or manufacturers not providing any).
I say all this based on the 50 or so friends, colleagues, and relatives who have enlisted (and begged) for help on fixing their old computers (that run XP).
How "computer basic" are these people? One was an engineer on the job for 35 years. He called in a state of panic because his computer would not boot and he had been trying to fix the problem for three hours. Actually, his wife called because he was too proud to call me. Problem fix: The message on his screen indicated he had a 3.5" floppy in the drive. LOL. Floppy ejected, PC reboots. Time he spent on phone with me before telling him the fix: 90 seconds, tops. Time lecturing him on what happened: 30 minutes.
