I absolutely agree with you that Windows Vista was a fundamental upgrade, and sincerely believe that at the time of its release hardware had simply not risen to the level necessary, for most existing XP users, as well as within the hardware industry as a whole, for many businesses, municipalities, and agencies to perform an upgrade from Windows XP. The main problem in this area were the fundamental changes made to the Windows kernel and the justifiably intense focus on security, which did not necessarily go hand-in-hand with performance. As we both know from experience, the problems associated with Windows Vista, especially after the release of Service Pack 1, were very much related to poor driver support from manufacturers. The key issue here is that manufacturers had, quite literally, over a year to adapt to the new technology and security apparatus that Microsoft was installing into the operating system. Technical whitepapers, explanations of changes in functionality, and technical previews were made well in advance of release. The final release bits were even withheld for quite awhile for hardware manufacturers to get their act together. In many cases, with core partners, it is my understanding that parts of the source code itself are provided to them for development. As to how often and how much code is shared, is up to debate, but my point is that there was plenty of time for extensive driver support for Vista. The main complaints about Windows Vista after Service Pack 1 did not hold water, aside from the fact that there was a noticeable performance loss in relation to similar systems running Windows XP, you could consider XP a beast in the wild, ready to literally be "hacked to pieces" compared to Windows Vista. To further put a nail in the coffin, the same security review companies and IT magazines that had, in the past, lambasted Windows XP for its poor security measures and "Fischer Price" interface, found new axes to grind with Windows XP's successor.
When looking at it from hindsight, Windows Vista was a fully capable and highly advanced operating system, optimized for multi-core processors with an advanced graphical user interface. The learning curve problem stated by Windows XP users, to me, was completely overblown. The release of Service Pack 1 for Windows Vista resolved nearly all of the release issues which gave the operating system such a black eye in the press and via word of mouth. While there were some issues, in nearly all cases, in my support operations, I found these issues to be driver and upgrade related. You will recall that Service Pack 1 for Windows Vista increased both stability and performance tremendously by actually upgrading the operating system kernel with the enhancements brought forth with the Windows Server 2008 kernel.
Now, looking at how the Windows-family of client systems has advanced since Windows Vista, I can see a clear and concise performance improvement with Windows 7. But I also see an entirely different world. The capability of multi-core processors and video graphics adapters has made the idea of running Windows Aero a non-issue, even when Aero resource consumption was reduced significantly between the two releases. I see a less repugnant and annoying User Account Control and more functionality in these areas. I see very clearly that this operating system was put through rigorous testing for maximum performance and security, as well as compatibility. And wherefore those detractors who still harkens back to the days of Windows XP will bemoan compatibility issues with ancient software and peripheral devices that have long since been abandoned by their developers, that excuse is long since forfeit with the ability to download and install Microsoft Windows XP Mode for Virtual PC. In a sense, Microsoft has not just provided you with the most subtle and agile operating system of the modern era, but they have also provided virtual license to the predecessor for which all detractors could use to rebuff their efforts.
Thus, in a sense, I do not believe in a justification of an upgrade from Windows XP to Windows 8. Such an idea is ridiculous, but proven possible, albeit stupid, by upgrading XP to Vista to 7 over the course of a long wait. The result of such an upgrade process leaves unwanted and unused file remnants everywhere and wastes an enormous and unnecessarily large amount of disk space. Do I believe it would be possible for Microsoft to streamline the process of upgrading from Windows XP to Windows 8 and make it possible in a correct way? Absolutely. Do I believe it would be a waste of resources to do so? Perhaps not. While people who focus on new technology releases look for, and quickly adopt a new version of Windows, there are those who have simply avoided the process altogether due to the problems that were associated with Windows Vista in the national headlines, and thus spread by word of mouth.
When I look at the issue from a business standpoint, it is clear to me that many companies and organizations are stuck in Windows XP land. They have decided to adopt a fortress policy, and during this difficult economic meltdown have decided to keep their infrastructure Windows XP based. Over the long-term, whether by necessity or by design, Microsoft has made this a bad strategy for businesses that are serious about technological training, success, and productivity. With many businesses still running Windows XP, with the popularity of 32-bit based software models showing early signs of waning, and with the product support timeline slowly ticking down, one only has to look at the logistics of upgrading that infrastructure versus not doing so. I believe it will be businesses, both large and small, that are deterministic in whether or not Windows 8 will have this rumored upgrade option from Windows XP. Simply put, Windows XP has outlived its usefulness. As a legacy operating system to run in a virtual machine for compatibility reasons, along with the likes of Windows 2000 and Windows 98, it is a fine piece of software. But at some point, those who have been using a computer since the start of the Iraq war must come to terms with the fact that they have gotten all of the money's worth possible from both their hardware and operating system software investment. And after eleven (11) years of Windows XP being a mainstream operating system, we are now entering a danger zone to continue using this operating system. While it is true that attack surfaces can always be minimized, there is no way to eliminate a looming security threat entirely. Windows XP will be abandoned once it becomes clear to the majority of consumers who have adopted to continue using it that the rest of the world has moved on, and there is little they can do with this system that will not make it fall apart.
And while I have no qualms about someone using their favorite system for whatever purpose, it is quite clear to me that continued use of Windows XP is not only a significant security problem for the owner of that computer -- it is also a serious risk for everyone around that client system's router. I'd like to state that for anyone who has any final doubts about migrating to Windows 7 being a bad idea, perhaps in part to the troubles you see on this website, I must encourage you to imagine the troubles that many people who come here for support would be facing if they were still in Windows XP. Most of our support forums would be loitered with problems related to security compromises, complete loss of the operating system, and so forth. It is my sincere hope that if Windows 8 does come around with significant improvements in its functionality and design, which I believe it will, that people will not continue to allow their system to age. Your computer is not a fine wine! It is a depreciating asset. XP users should consider their options carefully, as the operating system slowly becomes one that is associated with a dinosaur era.